Increments

#70 - ... and Bayes Bites Back (w/ Richard Meadows)

July 9th, 2024  |  1 hr 30 mins

bayesianism, decision-making, probability, rationality, uncertainty

Rich comes on to defend Scott Alexander against our criticisms. Are we being unfair? Are the Bayesians simply the Most Rational People (MRP) and we can't handle it?

#69 - Contra Scott Alexander on Probability

June 20th, 2024  |  1 hr 45 mins

bayesianism, credences, frequentism, probability, scott alexander, superforecasting

Cursed to return to this subject again, we attack the big man himself on probability. What's your credence that we're correct?

#53 - Ask Us Anything II: Disagreements and Decisions

August 14th, 2023  |  1 hr 34 mins

ask-us-anything, bayesianism, decision-making, disagreements, probability

Ask us anything? Ask us everything! Back at it again with AUA Part 2/N. We wax poetic and wane dramatic on disagreements, decision-making, EA, and probability

#46 (Bonus) - Arguing about probability (with Nick Anyos)

December 19th, 2022  |  1 hr 59 mins

bayesianism, effective altruism, longtermism, probability, statistics

Ben and Vaden make a guest appearance on Nick Anyos' podcast on criticisms of effective altruism. As usual, they end up arguing about probability for most of it.

#41 - Parenting, Epistemology, and EA (w/ Lulie Tanett)

June 20th, 2022  |  1 hr 18 mins

bayesianism, critical rationalism, effective altruism, epistemology, rationality

We're joined by the wonderful Lulie Tanett to talk about effective altruism, pulling spouses out of burning buildings, and why you should prefer critical rationalism to Bayesianism for your mom's sake.

#17 - Against Longtermism

December 18th, 2020  |  1 hr 30 mins

bayesianism, effective altruism, expected value, longtermism

#11 - Debating Existential Risk

September 16th, 2020  |  1 hr 29 mins

bayesianism, existential risk, probability, progress, rationality

#7 - Philosophy of Probability II: Existential Risks

July 7th, 2020  |  1 hr 37 mins

ai, bayesianism, existential risk, expected value

#6 - Philosophy of Probability I: Introduction

July 1st, 2020  |  1 hr 17 mins

bayesianism, epistemology, frequency, induction, probability