Increments
Science, Philosophy, Epistemology, Mayhem
Displaying Episode 1 - 10 of 13 in total of Increments with the tag “probability”.
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#95 (C&R Chap 10, Part II) - A Problem-First View of Scientific Progress
November 29th, 2025 | 57 mins 59 secs
content, epistemology, philosophy of science, popper, probability, simplicity, verisimilitude
After unsuccessfully trying to resolve our dispute about Popper's theory of content, we're back for part II of Chapter 10 of the Conjectures and Refutations Series.
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#93 (C&R Chap 10, Part I) - An Introduction to Popper's Theory of Content
October 16th, 2025 | 1 hr 47 mins
bayesianism, content, philosophy of science, popper, probability
An introduction to Popper's theory of content, following Chapter 10 of Conjectures and Refutations. Plus a lot of arguing about Bayesianism.
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#74 - Disagreeing about Belief, Probability, and Truth (w/ David Deutsch)
October 1st, 2024 | 1 hr 32 mins
belief, certainty, epistemology, mathematics, probability, statistics, truth
We talk with David Deutsch about whether the concept of belief is a useful lens on human cognition, when probability and statistics are actually useful, and whether he disagrees with Karl Popper about the truth.
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#70 - ... and Bayes Bites Back (w/ Richard Meadows)
July 9th, 2024 | 1 hr 30 mins
bayesianism, decision-making, probability, rationality, uncertainty
Rich comes on to defend Scott Alexander against our criticisms. Are we being unfair? Are the Bayesians simply the Most Rational People (MRP) and we can't handle it?
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#69 - Contra Scott Alexander on Probability
June 20th, 2024 | 1 hr 45 mins
bayesianism, credences, frequentism, probability, scott alexander, superforecasting
Cursed to return to this subject again, we attack the big man himself on probability. What's your credence that we're correct?
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#53 - Ask Us Anything II: Disagreements and Decisions
August 14th, 2023 | 1 hr 34 mins
ask-us-anything, bayesianism, decision-making, disagreements, probability
Ask us anything? Ask us everything! Back at it again with AUA Part 2/N. We wax poetic and wane dramatic on disagreements, decision-making, EA, and probability
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#46 (Bonus) - Arguing about probability (with Nick Anyos)
December 19th, 2022 | 1 hr 59 mins
bayesianism, effective altruism, longtermism, probability, statistics
Ben and Vaden make a guest appearance on Nick Anyos' podcast on criticisms of effective altruism. As usual, they end up arguing about probability for most of it.
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#29 - Some Scattered Thoughts on Superforecasting
August 16th, 2021 | 45 mins 20 secs
good judgement project, philip tetlock, politics, probability, superforecasting
We discuss Philip Tetlock's work on Superforecasting.
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#25 - Mathematical Explanation with Mark Colyvan
May 24th, 2021 | 2 hrs 7 mins
counterfactual, explanation, logic, philosophy of mathematics, probability, thought experiments
We're joined by professor Mark Colyvan to talk about the philosophy of mathematics, logic, and thought experiments.
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