Increments
Science, Philosophy, Epistemology, Mayhem
We found 10 episodes of Increments with the tag “probability”.
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#74 - Disagreeing about Belief, Probability, and Truth (w/ David Deutsch)
October 1st, 2024 | 1 hr 32 mins
belief, certainty, epistemology, mathematics, probability, statistics, truth
We talk with David Deutsch about whether the concept of belief is a useful lens on human cognition, when probability and statistics are actually useful, and whether he disagrees with Karl Popper about the truth.
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#70 - ... and Bayes Bites Back (w/ Richard Meadows)
July 9th, 2024 | 1 hr 30 mins
bayesianism, decision-making, probability, rationality, uncertainty
Rich comes on to defend Scott Alexander against our criticisms. Are we being unfair? Are the Bayesians simply the Most Rational People (MRP) and we can't handle it?
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#69 - Contra Scott Alexander on Probability
June 20th, 2024 | 1 hr 45 mins
bayesianism, credences, frequentism, probability, scott alexander, superforecasting
Cursed to return to this subject again, we attack the big man himself on probability. What's your credence that we're correct?
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#53 - Ask Us Anything II: Disagreements and Decisions
August 14th, 2023 | 1 hr 34 mins
ask-us-anything, bayesianism, decision-making, disagreements, probability
Ask us anything? Ask us everything! Back at it again with AUA Part 2/N. We wax poetic and wane dramatic on disagreements, decision-making, EA, and probability
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#46 (Bonus) - Arguing about probability (with Nick Anyos)
December 19th, 2022 | 1 hr 59 mins
bayesianism, effective altruism, longtermism, probability, statistics
Ben and Vaden make a guest appearance on Nick Anyos' podcast on criticisms of effective altruism. As usual, they end up arguing about probability for most of it.
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#29 - Some Scattered Thoughts on Superforecasting
August 16th, 2021 | 45 mins 20 secs
good judgement project, philip tetlock, politics, probability, superforecasting
We discuss Philip Tetlock's work on Superforecasting.
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#25 - Mathematical Explanation with Mark Colyvan
May 24th, 2021 | 2 hrs 7 mins
counterfactual, explanation, logic, philosophy of mathematics, probability, thought experiments
We're joined by professor Mark Colyvan to talk about the philosophy of mathematics, logic, and thought experiments.
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#11 - Debating Existential Risk
September 16th, 2020 | 1 hr 29 mins
bayesianism, existential risk, probability, progress, rationality
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#8 - Philosophy of Probability III: Conjectures and Refutations
July 28th, 2020 | 1 hr 10 mins
ben does a 180, conjectures and refutations, karl popper, probability