web02.fireside.fm Mon, 25 May 2026 02:19:06 -0500 Fireside (https://fireside.fm) Increments - Episodes Tagged with “Uncertainty” https://www.incrementspodcast.com/tags/uncertainty Tue, 09 Jul 2024 10:00:00 -0700 Vaden Masrani, a senior research scientist in machine learning, and Ben Chugg, a PhD student in statistics, get into trouble arguing about everything except machine learning and statistics. Coherence is somewhere on the horizon. Bribes, suggestions, love-mail and hate-mail all welcome at incrementspodcast@gmail.com. en-us episodic Science, Philosophy, Epistemology, Mayhem Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani Vaden Masrani, a senior research scientist in machine learning, and Ben Chugg, a PhD student in statistics, get into trouble arguing about everything except machine learning and statistics. Coherence is somewhere on the horizon. Bribes, suggestions, love-mail and hate-mail all welcome at incrementspodcast@gmail.com. no Philosophy,Science,Ethics,Progress,Knowledge,Computer Science,Conversation,Error-Correction Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani incrementspodcast@gmail.com #70 - ... and Bayes Bites Back (w/ Richard Meadows) https://www.incrementspodcast.com/70 a9b0b76a-e2e7-449c-8318-06efecf1c13d Tue, 09 Jul 2024 10:00:00 -0700 Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani full Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani Rich comes on to defend Scott Alexander against our criticisms. Are we being unfair? Are the Bayesians simply the Most Rational People (MRP) and we can't handle it? 1:30:34 no <p>Sick of hearing us shouting about Bayesianism? Well today you're in luck, because this time, someone shouts at <em>us</em> about Bayesianism! Richard Meadows, finance journalist, author, and Ben's secretive podcast paramour, takes us to task. Are we being unfair to the Bayesians? Is Bayesian rationality optimal in theory, and the rest of us are just coping with an uncertain world? Is this why the Bayesian rationalists have so much cultural influence (and money, and fame, and media attention, and ...), and we, ahem, uhhh, don't? </p> <p>Check out Rich's <a href="https://thedeepdish.org/start" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">website</a>, his book <a href="https://www.amazon.ca/Optionality-Survive-Thrive-Volatile-World/dp/0473545500" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener"><strong>Optionality:</strong> How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World</a>, and his <a href="https://doyouevenlit.podbean.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">podcast</a>. </p> We discuss <ul> <li>The pros of the rationality and EA communities </li> <li>Whether Bayesian epistemology contributes to open-mindedness</li> <li>The fact that evidence doesn't speak for itself </li> <li>The fact that the world doesn't come bundled as discrete chunks of evidence </li> <li>Whether Bayesian epistemology would be "optimal" for Laplace's demon </li> <li>The difference between truth and certainty</li> <li>Vaden's tone issues and why he gets animated about this subject. </li> </ul> References <ul> <li>Scott's original piece: <a href="https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-continued-defense-of-non-frequentist" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">In continued defense of non-frequentist probabilities</a> </li> <li>Scott Alexander's <a href="https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/practically-a-book-review-rootclaim/comments" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">post about rootclaim</a> </li> <li>Our previous episode on Scott's piece: <a href="https://www.incrementspodcast.com/69" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">#69 - Contra Scott Alexander on Probability</a> </li> <li><a href="https://www.rootclaim.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Rootclaim</a></li> <li>Ben's blogpost <a href="https://benchugg.com/writing/you-need-a-theory/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">You need a theory for that theory</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cox%27s_theorem" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Cox's theorem</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aumann%27s_agreement_theorem" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Aumann's agreement theorem</a> </li> <li>Vaden's blogposts mentioned in the episode: <ul> <li><a href="https://vmasrani.github.io/blog/2020/vaden_second_response/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Critical Rationalism and Bayesian Epistemology</a></li> <li><a href="https://vmasrani.github.io/blog/2021/proving_too_much/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Proving Too Much</a></li> </ul> </li> </ul> Socials <ul> <li>Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani</li> <li>Follow Rich at @MeadowsRichard</li> <li>Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link</li> <li>Help us calibrate our credences and get exclusive bonus content by becoming a patreon subscriber <a href="https://www.patreon.com/Increments" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">here</a>. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations <a href="https://ko-fi.com/increments" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">here</a>.</li> <li>Click dem like buttons on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_4wZzQyoW4s4ZuE4FY9DQQ" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube</a> </li> </ul> <p>What's your favorite theory that is neither true nor useful? Tell us over at <a href="mailto:incrementspodcast@gmail.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">incrementspodcast@gmail.com</a>. Special Guest: Richard Meadows.</p> probability, bayesianism, rationality, uncertainty, decision-making Sick of hearing us shouting about Bayesianism? Well today you're in luck, because this time, someone shouts at us about Bayesianism! Richard Meadows, finance journalist, author, and Ben's secretive podcast paramour, takes us to task. Are we being unfair to the Bayesians? Is Bayesian rationality optimal in theory, and the rest of us are just coping with an uncertain world? Is this why the Bayesian rationalists have so much cultural influence (and money, and fame, and media attention, and ...), and we, ahem, uhhh, don't?

Check out Rich's website, his book Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World, and his podcast.

We discuss

  • The pros of the rationality and EA communities
  • Whether Bayesian epistemology contributes to open-mindedness
  • The fact that evidence doesn't speak for itself
  • The fact that the world doesn't come bundled as discrete chunks of evidence
  • Whether Bayesian epistemology would be "optimal" for Laplace's demon
  • The difference between truth and certainty
  • Vaden's tone issues and why he gets animated about this subject.

References

Socials

  • Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
  • Follow Rich at @MeadowsRichard
  • Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
  • Help us calibrate our credences and get exclusive bonus content by becoming a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
  • Click dem like buttons on youtube

What's your favorite theory that is neither true nor useful? Tell us over at incrementspodcast@gmail.com.

Special Guest: Richard Meadows.

Support Increments

]]> Sick of hearing us shouting about Bayesianism? Well today you're in luck, because this time, someone shouts at us about Bayesianism! Richard Meadows, finance journalist, author, and Ben's secretive podcast paramour, takes us to task. Are we being unfair to the Bayesians? Is Bayesian rationality optimal in theory, and the rest of us are just coping with an uncertain world? Is this why the Bayesian rationalists have so much cultural influence (and money, and fame, and media attention, and ...), and we, ahem, uhhh, don't?

Check out Rich's website, his book Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World, and his podcast.

We discuss

  • The pros of the rationality and EA communities
  • Whether Bayesian epistemology contributes to open-mindedness
  • The fact that evidence doesn't speak for itself
  • The fact that the world doesn't come bundled as discrete chunks of evidence
  • Whether Bayesian epistemology would be "optimal" for Laplace's demon
  • The difference between truth and certainty
  • Vaden's tone issues and why he gets animated about this subject.

References

Socials

  • Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
  • Follow Rich at @MeadowsRichard
  • Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
  • Help us calibrate our credences and get exclusive bonus content by becoming a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
  • Click dem like buttons on youtube

What's your favorite theory that is neither true nor useful? Tell us over at incrementspodcast@gmail.com.

Special Guest: Richard Meadows.

Support Increments

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