web02.fireside.fm Fri, 05 Jun 2026 14:56:32 -0500 Fireside (https://fireside.fm) Increments - Episodes Tagged with “Technology” https://www.incrementspodcast.com/tags/technology Sun, 17 Aug 2025 18:00:00 -0700 Vaden Masrani, a senior research scientist in machine learning, and Ben Chugg, a PhD student in statistics, get into trouble arguing about everything except machine learning and statistics. Coherence is somewhere on the horizon. Bribes, suggestions, love-mail and hate-mail all welcome at incrementspodcast@gmail.com. en-us episodic Science, Philosophy, Epistemology, Mayhem Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani Vaden Masrani, a senior research scientist in machine learning, and Ben Chugg, a PhD student in statistics, get into trouble arguing about everything except machine learning and statistics. Coherence is somewhere on the horizon. Bribes, suggestions, love-mail and hate-mail all welcome at incrementspodcast@gmail.com. no Philosophy,Science,Ethics,Progress,Knowledge,Computer Science,Conversation,Error-Correction Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani incrementspodcast@gmail.com #90 (Reaction) - Disbelieving AI 2027: Responding to "Why We're Not Ready For Superintelligence" https://www.incrementspodcast.com/90 5f0aa7bc-c0a9-4fe5-b95e-18e5ab93b228 Sun, 17 Aug 2025 18:00:00 -0700 Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani full Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani The boys are hooked on reaction videos. This time: 80,000 hours' "Why we're not ready for superintelligence." 1:35:32 no <p>Always the uncool kids at the table, Ben and Vaden push back against the AGI hype domininating every second episode of every second podcast. We react to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KVDDfAkRgc" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">"We're not ready for superintelligence"</a> by 80,000 Hours - a bleak portrayal of the pre and post AGI world. Can Ben keep Vaden's sass in check? Can the 80,000 hours team find enough cubes for AGI? Is Agent-5 listening to you RIGHT NOW?</p> Listener Note: <p>We strongly recommend watching the video for this one, available both on youtube and spotify:<br> - <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@incrementspod" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">https://www.youtube.com/@incrementspod</a><br> - <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/1gKKSP5HKT4Nk3i0y4UseB" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">https://open.spotify.com/show/1gKKSP5HKT4Nk3i0y4UseB</a> </p> We discuss <ul> <li>The incentives of superforecasters </li> <li>Arguments by authority</li> <li>Whether superintelligence is right around the corner </li> <li>The difference between model size and data </li> <li>Are we running out of high quality data?</li> <li>Does training on synthetic data work? </li> <li>The assumptions behind the AGI claims </li> <li>The pitfalls of reasoning from trends</li> </ul> References <ul> <li><a href="https://people.eecs.berkeley.edu/%7Ejordan/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Michael I Jordan</a></li> <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_Lawrence" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Neil Lawrence</a><br></li> <li>[Important technical paper from Jordan pushing back on Doomerism](A Collectivist, Economic Perspective on AI) </li> <li><a href="https://news.berkeley.edu/2023/11/09/how-to-use-ai-for-discovery-without-leading-science-astray/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Jordan article talking about dangers of using AlphaFold data</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07566-y" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Nature paper showing you can't use synthetic data to train bigger models </a></li> <li><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.04325v2" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Paper estimating of when training data will run out</a> (Coincidentally enough, sometime between 2027-2028)</li> </ul> Socials <ul> <li>Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani</li> <li>Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link</li> <li>Become a patreon subscriber&nbsp;<a href="https://www.patreon.com/Increments" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">here</a>. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations&nbsp;<a href="https://ko-fi.com/increments" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">here</a>.</li> <li>Click dem like buttons on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_4wZzQyoW4s4ZuE4FY9DQQ" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube</a></li> </ul> <p>But how many cubes until we get to AGI though? Send a few of your cubes over to <a href="mailto:incrementspodcast@gmail.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">incrementspodcast@gmail.com</a></p> <p>Episode header image from <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&amp;v=0Jsrux_XY8Y&amp;ab_channel=TheAlgorithmicVoice" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">here</a>. </p> AI, AGI, superintelligence, trends, doomerism, technology, progress Always the uncool kids at the table, Ben and Vaden push back against the AGI hype domininating every second episode of every second podcast. We react to "We're not ready for superintelligence" by 80,000 Hours - a bleak portrayal of the pre and post AGI world. Can Ben keep Vaden's sass in check? Can the 80,000 hours team find enough cubes for AGI? Is Agent-5 listening to you RIGHT NOW?

Listener Note:

We strongly recommend watching the video for this one, available both on youtube and spotify:
- https://www.youtube.com/@incrementspod
- https://open.spotify.com/show/1gKKSP5HKT4Nk3i0y4UseB

We discuss
  • The incentives of superforecasters
  • Arguments by authority
  • Whether superintelligence is right around the corner
  • The difference between model size and data
  • Are we running out of high quality data?
  • Does training on synthetic data work?
  • The assumptions behind the AGI claims
  • The pitfalls of reasoning from trends
References Socials
  • Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
  • Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
  • Become a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
  • Click dem like buttons on youtube

But how many cubes until we get to AGI though? Send a few of your cubes over to incrementspodcast@gmail.com

Episode header image from here.

Support Increments

]]> Always the uncool kids at the table, Ben and Vaden push back against the AGI hype domininating every second episode of every second podcast. We react to "We're not ready for superintelligence" by 80,000 Hours - a bleak portrayal of the pre and post AGI world. Can Ben keep Vaden's sass in check? Can the 80,000 hours team find enough cubes for AGI? Is Agent-5 listening to you RIGHT NOW?

Listener Note:

We strongly recommend watching the video for this one, available both on youtube and spotify:
- https://www.youtube.com/@incrementspod
- https://open.spotify.com/show/1gKKSP5HKT4Nk3i0y4UseB

We discuss
  • The incentives of superforecasters
  • Arguments by authority
  • Whether superintelligence is right around the corner
  • The difference between model size and data
  • Are we running out of high quality data?
  • Does training on synthetic data work?
  • The assumptions behind the AGI claims
  • The pitfalls of reasoning from trends
References Socials
  • Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
  • Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
  • Become a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
  • Click dem like buttons on youtube

But how many cubes until we get to AGI though? Send a few of your cubes over to incrementspodcast@gmail.com

Episode header image from here.

Support Increments

]]> #16 - Social Media II: Conversation, Privacy, and Odds & Ends https://www.incrementspodcast.com/16 Buzzsprout-6777526 Wed, 09 Dec 2020 16:00:00 -0800 Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani full Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani 50:12 no <p>Vaden comes battle-hardened and ready to debate and is met with ... a big soft hug from Ben. Ben repents his apocalyptic sins and admits that Vaden changed his mind. Again. God dammit this is getting annoying. To his credit, Vaden only gloats for 10 minutes.&nbsp; Eventually we touch on some other topics:&nbsp;</p><ul><li>technology as filling niches</li><li>when is outrage appropriate?&nbsp;</li><li>the upsides of social media&nbsp;</li><li>conversation as a substitute for violence&nbsp;</li></ul><p>Much love to everyone and stay safe out there! Send us some feedback at incrementspodcast@gmail.com&nbsp;</p> social media, technology, outrage Vaden comes battle-hardened and ready to debate and is met with ... a big soft hug from Ben. Ben repents his apocalyptic sins and admits that Vaden changed his mind. Again. God dammit this is getting annoying. To his credit, Vaden only gloats for 10 minutes.  Eventually we touch on some other topics: 

  • technology as filling niches
  • when is outrage appropriate? 
  • the upsides of social media 
  • conversation as a substitute for violence 

Much love to everyone and stay safe out there! Send us some feedback at incrementspodcast@gmail.com 

Support Increments

]]> Vaden comes battle-hardened and ready to debate and is met with ... a big soft hug from Ben. Ben repents his apocalyptic sins and admits that Vaden changed his mind. Again. God dammit this is getting annoying. To his credit, Vaden only gloats for 10 minutes.  Eventually we touch on some other topics: 

  • technology as filling niches
  • when is outrage appropriate? 
  • the upsides of social media 
  • conversation as a substitute for violence 

Much love to everyone and stay safe out there! Send us some feedback at incrementspodcast@gmail.com 

Support Increments

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