web02.fireside.fm Tue, 21 Apr 2026 08:37:52 -0500 Fireside (https://fireside.fm) Increments - Episodes Tagged with “Superintelligence” https://www.incrementspodcast.com/tags/superintelligence Sun, 17 Aug 2025 18:00:00 -0700 Vaden Masrani, a senior research scientist in machine learning, and Ben Chugg, a PhD student in statistics, get into trouble arguing about everything except machine learning and statistics. Coherence is somewhere on the horizon. Bribes, suggestions, love-mail and hate-mail all welcome at incrementspodcast@gmail.com. en-us episodic Science, Philosophy, Epistemology, Mayhem Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani Vaden Masrani, a senior research scientist in machine learning, and Ben Chugg, a PhD student in statistics, get into trouble arguing about everything except machine learning and statistics. Coherence is somewhere on the horizon. Bribes, suggestions, love-mail and hate-mail all welcome at incrementspodcast@gmail.com. no Philosophy,Science,Ethics,Progress,Knowledge,Computer Science,Conversation,Error-Correction Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani incrementspodcast@gmail.com #90 (Reaction) - Disbelieving AI 2027: Responding to "Why We're Not Ready For Superintelligence" https://www.incrementspodcast.com/90 5f0aa7bc-c0a9-4fe5-b95e-18e5ab93b228 Sun, 17 Aug 2025 18:00:00 -0700 Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani full Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani The boys are hooked on reaction videos. This time: 80,000 hours' "Why we're not ready for superintelligence." 1:35:32 no Always the uncool kids at the table, Ben and Vaden push back against the AGI hype domininating every second episode of every second podcast. We react to "We're not ready for superintelligence" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KVDDfAkRgc) by 80,000 Hours - a bleak portrayal of the pre and post AGI world. Can Ben keep Vaden's sass in check? Can the 80,000 hours team find enough cubes for AGI? Is Agent-5 listening to you RIGHT NOW? Listener Note: We strongly recommend watching the video for this one, available both on youtube and spotify: - https://www.youtube.com/@incrementspod - https://open.spotify.com/show/1gKKSP5HKT4Nk3i0y4UseB We discuss The incentives of superforecasters Arguments by authority Whether superintelligence is right around the corner The difference between model size and data Are we running out of high quality data? Does training on synthetic data work? The assumptions behind the AGI claims The pitfalls of reasoning from trends References Michael I Jordan (https://people.eecs.berkeley.edu/~jordan/) Neil Lawrence (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_Lawrence) Important technical paper from Jordan pushing back on Doomerism (A Collectivist, Economic Perspective on AI) Jordan article talking about dangers of using AlphaFold data (https://news.berkeley.edu/2023/11/09/how-to-use-ai-for-discovery-without-leading-science-astray/) Nature paper showing you can't use synthetic data to train bigger models (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07566-y) Paper estimating of when training data will run out (https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.04325v2) (Coincidentally enough, sometime between 2027-2028) Socials Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link Become a patreon subscriber here (https://www.patreon.com/Increments). Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here (https://ko-fi.com/increments). Click dem like buttons on youtube (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_4wZzQyoW4s4ZuE4FY9DQQ) But how many cubes until we get to AGI though? Send a few of your cubes over to incrementspodcast@gmail.com Episode header image from here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=0Jsrux_XY8Y&ab_channel=TheAlgorithmicVoice). AI, AGI, superintelligence, trends, doomerism, technology, progress Always the uncool kids at the table, Ben and Vaden push back against the AGI hype domininating every second episode of every second podcast. We react to "We're not ready for superintelligence" by 80,000 Hours - a bleak portrayal of the pre and post AGI world. Can Ben keep Vaden's sass in check? Can the 80,000 hours team find enough cubes for AGI? Is Agent-5 listening to you RIGHT NOW?

Listener Note:

We strongly recommend watching the video for this one, available both on youtube and spotify:
- https://www.youtube.com/@incrementspod
- https://open.spotify.com/show/1gKKSP5HKT4Nk3i0y4UseB

We discuss

  • The incentives of superforecasters
  • Arguments by authority
  • Whether superintelligence is right around the corner
  • The difference between model size and data
  • Are we running out of high quality data?
  • Does training on synthetic data work?
  • The assumptions behind the AGI claims
  • The pitfalls of reasoning from trends

References

Socials

  • Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
  • Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
  • Become a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
  • Click dem like buttons on youtube

But how many cubes until we get to AGI though? Send a few of your cubes over to incrementspodcast@gmail.com

Episode header image from here.

Support Increments

]]> Always the uncool kids at the table, Ben and Vaden push back against the AGI hype domininating every second episode of every second podcast. We react to "We're not ready for superintelligence" by 80,000 Hours - a bleak portrayal of the pre and post AGI world. Can Ben keep Vaden's sass in check? Can the 80,000 hours team find enough cubes for AGI? Is Agent-5 listening to you RIGHT NOW?

Listener Note:

We strongly recommend watching the video for this one, available both on youtube and spotify:
- https://www.youtube.com/@incrementspod
- https://open.spotify.com/show/1gKKSP5HKT4Nk3i0y4UseB

We discuss

  • The incentives of superforecasters
  • Arguments by authority
  • Whether superintelligence is right around the corner
  • The difference between model size and data
  • Are we running out of high quality data?
  • Does training on synthetic data work?
  • The assumptions behind the AGI claims
  • The pitfalls of reasoning from trends

References

Socials

  • Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
  • Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
  • Become a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
  • Click dem like buttons on youtube

But how many cubes until we get to AGI though? Send a few of your cubes over to incrementspodcast@gmail.com

Episode header image from here.

Support Increments

]]> #77 (Bonus) - AI Doom Debate (w/ Liron Shapira) https://www.incrementspodcast.com/77 24e93eab-5281-418f-bddf-9516c7c5f8d7 Tue, 19 Nov 2024 13:30:00 -0800 Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani full Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani Part II of the great debate! Is AI about to kill everyone? Should you cash in on those vacation days now? 2:21:22 no Back on Liron's Doom Debates podcast! Will we actually get around to the subject of superintelligent AI this time? Is it time to worry about the end of the world? Will Ben and Vaden emotionally recover from the devastating youtube comments from the last episode? Follow Liron on twitter (@liron) and check out the Doom Debates youtube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@DoomDebates) and podcast (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/doom-debates/id1751366208). We discuss Definitions of "new knowledge" The reliance of deep learning on induction Can AIs be creative? The limits of statistical prediction Predictions of what deep learning cannot accomplish Can ChatGPT write funny jokes? Trends versus principles The psychological consequences of doomerism Socials Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani, @liron Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link The world is going to end soon, might as well get exclusive bonus content by becoming a patreon subscriber here (https://www.patreon.com/Increments). Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here (https://ko-fi.com/increments). Click dem like buttons on youtube (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_4wZzQyoW4s4ZuE4FY9DQQ) Was Vaden's two week anti-debate bro reeducation camp successful? Tell us at incrementspodcast@gmail.com Special Guest: Liron Shapira. AI, superintelligence, existential risk, novelty, induction, deep learning, comedy, creativity, knowledge Back on Liron's Doom Debates podcast! Will we actually get around to the subject of superintelligent AI this time? Is it time to worry about the end of the world? Will Ben and Vaden emotionally recover from the devastating youtube comments from the last episode?

Follow Liron on twitter (@liron) and check out the Doom Debates youtube channel and podcast.

We discuss

  • Definitions of "new knowledge"
  • The reliance of deep learning on induction
  • Can AIs be creative?
  • The limits of statistical prediction
  • Predictions of what deep learning cannot accomplish
  • Can ChatGPT write funny jokes?
  • Trends versus principles
  • The psychological consequences of doomerism

Socials

  • Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani, @liron
  • Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
  • The world is going to end soon, might as well get exclusive bonus content by becoming a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
  • Click dem like buttons on youtube

Was Vaden's two week anti-debate bro reeducation camp successful? Tell us at incrementspodcast@gmail.com

Special Guest: Liron Shapira.

Support Increments

]]> Back on Liron's Doom Debates podcast! Will we actually get around to the subject of superintelligent AI this time? Is it time to worry about the end of the world? Will Ben and Vaden emotionally recover from the devastating youtube comments from the last episode?

Follow Liron on twitter (@liron) and check out the Doom Debates youtube channel and podcast.

We discuss

  • Definitions of "new knowledge"
  • The reliance of deep learning on induction
  • Can AIs be creative?
  • The limits of statistical prediction
  • Predictions of what deep learning cannot accomplish
  • Can ChatGPT write funny jokes?
  • Trends versus principles
  • The psychological consequences of doomerism

Socials

  • Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani, @liron
  • Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
  • The world is going to end soon, might as well get exclusive bonus content by becoming a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
  • Click dem like buttons on youtube

Was Vaden's two week anti-debate bro reeducation camp successful? Tell us at incrementspodcast@gmail.com

Special Guest: Liron Shapira.

Support Increments

]]>