#105 - The World of Bayesian Statistics (w/ Alex Andorra)

Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani — Fri, 17 Jul 2026 14:00:00 -0700

We've spent a long time bashing Bayesian epistemology on the podcast. Unfortunately, this is sometimes taken to mean that we bash all things Bayesian. But our God-fearing listeners will be pleased to learn that we do not bash all things that the Reverend Thomas Bayes stood for. Bayesian statistics, when appropriately separated from epistemology, has many things to teach us. And instead of taking our word for it, we're bringing on an expert in this field: Alex Andorra, a research scientist at Meta and host of the Learning Bayesian Statistics podcast. The Gods Smile.

Check out Alex's website and the Learning Bayesian statistics podcast.

We discuss

538 and election forecasting
Sports analytics and why Messi is objectively the best
What is Bayesian statistics?
What is the difference between Bayesian and frequentist statistics?
What is the allure of Bayesian statistics?
Are priors best thought of as beliefs?
How do critical rationalists make decisions?

References

Learning Bayesian Statistics: https://learnbayesstats.com/
Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver.net/
Vaden's blog post on decision making: https://vmasrani.github.io/blog/2020/vaden_second_response/#what-other-options-to-decision-theory-are-there # Socials
Follow us on Twitter at @alex_andorra, @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
Become a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
Click dem like buttons on youtube

Send us an email because you have - no, because you want to - over at incrementspodcast@gmail.com.

Special Guest: Alex Andorra.

Increments - Episodes Tagged with “Probabiliity”

#105 - The World of Bayesian Statistics (w/ Alex Andorra)