Listener Note:

We strongly recommend watching the video for this one, available both on youtube and spotify:
- https://www.youtube.com/@incrementspod
- https://open.spotify.com/show/1gKKSP5HKT4Nk3i0y4UseB

We discuss

• The incentives of superforecasters
• Arguments by authority
• Whether superintelligence is right around the corner
• The difference between model size and data
• Are we running out of high quality data?
• Does training on synthetic data work?
• The assumptions behind the AGI claims
• The pitfalls of reasoning from trends

References

• Michael I Jordan
• Neil Lawrence
  
• [Important technical paper from Jordan pushing back on Doomerism](A Collectivist, Economic Perspective on AI)
• Jordan article talking about dangers of using AlphaFold data
• Nature paper showing you can't use synthetic data to train bigger models
• Paper estimating of when training data will run out (Coincidentally enough, sometime between 2027-2028)

Socials

• Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
• Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
• Become a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
• Click dem like buttons on youtube

But how many cubes until we get to AGI though? Send a few of your cubes over to incrementspodcast@gmail.com

Episode header image from here.

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