web02.fireside.fm Sat, 02 May 2026 04:34:18 -0500 Fireside (https://fireside.fm) Increments - Episodes Tagged with “Confidence” https://www.incrementspodcast.com/tags/confidence Thu, 08 May 2025 20:00:00 -0700 Vaden Masrani, a senior research scientist in machine learning, and Ben Chugg, a PhD student in statistics, get into trouble arguing about everything except machine learning and statistics. Coherence is somewhere on the horizon. Bribes, suggestions, love-mail and hate-mail all welcome at incrementspodcast@gmail.com. en-us episodic Science, Philosophy, Epistemology, Mayhem Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani Vaden Masrani, a senior research scientist in machine learning, and Ben Chugg, a PhD student in statistics, get into trouble arguing about everything except machine learning and statistics. Coherence is somewhere on the horizon. Bribes, suggestions, love-mail and hate-mail all welcome at incrementspodcast@gmail.com. no Philosophy,Science,Ethics,Progress,Knowledge,Computer Science,Conversation,Error-Correction Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani incrementspodcast@gmail.com #85 (Reaction) - On Confidence and Evidence: Reacting to Brett Hall and Peter Boghossian (Part 1) https://www.incrementspodcast.com/85 2411225d-dc31-4f0f-9907-cf386fc6e475 Thu, 08 May 2025 20:00:00 -0700 Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani full Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani Reacting to a discussion about belief, confidence, and epistemology between Brett Hall and Peter Boghossian 1:49:48 no We all knew that Vaden would release his inner Youtube debate bro at some point. Well he finally paid Ben enough to do it, and here we are: our first reaction video. Today we're commenting on the video What's the most rational way to know? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNQlmVJxySc&t=3614s&ab_channel=CordialCuriosity), a discussion between Brett Hall and Peter Boghossian on the relationship between confidence and evidence. Are we overly confident in our ability to make reaction videos? Evidently. Check out more from Brett Hall here (https://www.bretthall.org/) and Peter Boghossian here (https://peterboghossian.com/). We discuss What is the relationship between confidence and evidence? The "formal apparatus of science" vs the "sociology" of science Eddington's famous experiment Why confidence and belief can't be mathematized (But why they are useful nonetheless) Confidence as a function of falsifying experiments Bayesianism vs critical rationalism References Paper discussing how it took the wider scientific community over 40 years (after Eddington's experiment!) to become convinced in the truth of general relativity: The 1919 measurement of the deflection of light (https://arxiv.org/abs/1409.7812) Eddington's original paper (https://w.astro.berkeley.edu/~kalas/labs/documents/dyson1920.pdf): Vaden and Brett's blog exchange (https://vmasrani.github.io/blog/2023/predicting-human-behaviour/) Socials Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link Become a patreon subscriber here (https://www.patreon.com/Increments). Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here (https://ko-fi.com/increments). Click dem like buttons on youtube (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_4wZzQyoW4s4ZuE4FY9DQQ) Where were you last night, and why do you have condoms in your pocket? Tell us at incrementspodcast@gmail.com. epistemology, reaction video, confidence, belief, falsification We all knew that Vaden would release his inner Youtube debate bro at some point. Well he finally paid Ben enough to do it, and here we are: our first reaction video. Today we're commenting on the video What's the most rational way to know?, a discussion between Brett Hall and Peter Boghossian on the relationship between confidence and evidence. Are we overly confident in our ability to make reaction videos? Evidently.

Check out more from Brett Hall here and Peter Boghossian here.

We discuss

  • What is the relationship between confidence and evidence?
  • The "formal apparatus of science" vs the "sociology" of science
  • Eddington's famous experiment
  • Why confidence and belief can't be mathematized (But why they are useful nonetheless)
  • Confidence as a function of falsifying experiments
  • Bayesianism vs critical rationalism

References

Socials

  • Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
  • Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
  • Become a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
  • Click dem like buttons on youtube

Where were you last night, and why do you have condoms in your pocket? Tell us at incrementspodcast@gmail.com.

Support Increments

]]> We all knew that Vaden would release his inner Youtube debate bro at some point. Well he finally paid Ben enough to do it, and here we are: our first reaction video. Today we're commenting on the video What's the most rational way to know?, a discussion between Brett Hall and Peter Boghossian on the relationship between confidence and evidence. Are we overly confident in our ability to make reaction videos? Evidently.

Check out more from Brett Hall here and Peter Boghossian here.

We discuss

  • What is the relationship between confidence and evidence?
  • The "formal apparatus of science" vs the "sociology" of science
  • Eddington's famous experiment
  • Why confidence and belief can't be mathematized (But why they are useful nonetheless)
  • Confidence as a function of falsifying experiments
  • Bayesianism vs critical rationalism

References

Socials

  • Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
  • Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
  • Become a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
  • Click dem like buttons on youtube

Where were you last night, and why do you have condoms in your pocket? Tell us at incrementspodcast@gmail.com.

Support Increments

]]> #56 - Ask Us Anything IV: Certainty, Emergence, and Popperian Imperatives https://www.incrementspodcast.com/56 d4e62324-29eb-46bd-99c1-d97f3b2ae8b7 Wed, 01 Nov 2023 09:00:00 -0700 Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani full Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani Perhaps you thought, in your infinite ignorance, that the release of the previous episode marked the end of the age of the AMA! But nay: the age of the AMA has just begun! 1:21:32 no <p>Perhaps you thought, in your infinite ignorance, that the release of the previous episode marked the end of the age of the AMA! But nay my friends, the age of the AMA has just begun! We'll answer your questions until the cows come home; until Godot arrives; until all the world's babies are potty-trained. Or, at least, until we stop laughing. </p> We discuss <ul> <li>Potty training, taking babies seriously, and adult diapers </li> <li>Why Vaden never daydreams, fantasizes, or minds spending 10 hours in a car</li> <li>Whether the subjective notions of certainty, belief, or confidence deserve a spot in the objective world of epistemology </li> <li>Whether sports are authoritarian </li> <li>Whether spreading Popper's epistemology is a moral imperative </li> <li>The role of school and educational institutions </li> <li>Whether emergence is the result of the interplay between physical reality and the reality of abstraction</li> </ul> Questions <ol> <li><p>(Tom) Can any thinking take place completely independent of any certainty (explicitly acknowledged or inexplicit) whatsoever? Or can we introduce alternative terms to 'certainty' and 'confidence' to describe how individuals process their convictions, consent, and agreement? If 'certainty' and 'confidence' connote justificationism, can a fallibilist dismiss these terms entirely?</p></li> <li><p>(Tom) Can fallibilism, anti-authoritarianism, anti-justificationism, and critical rationalism overall operate effectively in the highly competitive space of sports, especially professional sports? </p></li> <li><p>(Andrew) If our best theory of how to make rapid progress comes from Popper's epistemology, should making it more widely known/understood be considered a moral imperative? If not, why? If so, thoughts? </p></li> <li><p>(Andrew) This one has been hanging about in my notes for a couple of years so I'm not sure it's a great question any more, but something zingy about the interplay between reality, abstractions and their effects on each other has pushed me to add it here: Is emergence the result of the interplay between physical reality and the reality of abstractions?</p></li> </ol> Socials <ul> <li>Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani</li> <li>Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link</li> <li>Help us pay for diapers and get exclusive bonus content by becoming a patreon subscriber <a href="https://www.patreon.com/Increments" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">here</a>. Or give us one-time cash donations to help with Diarrhea removal <a href="https://ko-fi.com/increments" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">here</a>). </li> <li>Click dem like buttons on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_4wZzQyoW4s4ZuE4FY9DQQ" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube over hur</a>.</li> </ul> <p>Who is more annoying in the mornings? Tell us at <em><a href="mailto:incrementspodcast@gmail.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">incrementspodcast@gmail.com</a></em> </p> ask-us-anything, emergence, moral imperatives, certainty, confidence, belief Perhaps you thought, in your infinite ignorance, that the release of the previous episode marked the end of the age of the AMA! But nay my friends, the age of the AMA has just begun! We'll answer your questions until the cows come home; until Godot arrives; until all the world's babies are potty-trained. Or, at least, until we stop laughing.

We discuss

  • Potty training, taking babies seriously, and adult diapers
  • Why Vaden never daydreams, fantasizes, or minds spending 10 hours in a car
  • Whether the subjective notions of certainty, belief, or confidence deserve a spot in the objective world of epistemology
  • Whether sports are authoritarian
  • Whether spreading Popper's epistemology is a moral imperative
  • The role of school and educational institutions
  • Whether emergence is the result of the interplay between physical reality and the reality of abstraction

Questions

  1. (Tom) Can any thinking take place completely independent of any certainty (explicitly acknowledged or inexplicit) whatsoever? Or can we introduce alternative terms to 'certainty' and 'confidence' to describe how individuals process their convictions, consent, and agreement? If 'certainty' and 'confidence' connote justificationism, can a fallibilist dismiss these terms entirely?

  2. (Tom) Can fallibilism, anti-authoritarianism, anti-justificationism, and critical rationalism overall operate effectively in the highly competitive space of sports, especially professional sports?

  3. (Andrew) If our best theory of how to make rapid progress comes from Popper's epistemology, should making it more widely known/understood be considered a moral imperative? If not, why? If so, thoughts?

  4. (Andrew) This one has been hanging about in my notes for a couple of years so I'm not sure it's a great question any more, but something zingy about the interplay between reality, abstractions and their effects on each other has pushed me to add it here: Is emergence the result of the interplay between physical reality and the reality of abstractions?

Socials

  • Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
  • Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
  • Help us pay for diapers and get exclusive bonus content by becoming a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help with Diarrhea removal here).
  • Click dem like buttons on youtube over hur.

Who is more annoying in the mornings? Tell us at incrementspodcast@gmail.com

Support Increments

]]> Perhaps you thought, in your infinite ignorance, that the release of the previous episode marked the end of the age of the AMA! But nay my friends, the age of the AMA has just begun! We'll answer your questions until the cows come home; until Godot arrives; until all the world's babies are potty-trained. Or, at least, until we stop laughing.

We discuss

  • Potty training, taking babies seriously, and adult diapers
  • Why Vaden never daydreams, fantasizes, or minds spending 10 hours in a car
  • Whether the subjective notions of certainty, belief, or confidence deserve a spot in the objective world of epistemology
  • Whether sports are authoritarian
  • Whether spreading Popper's epistemology is a moral imperative
  • The role of school and educational institutions
  • Whether emergence is the result of the interplay between physical reality and the reality of abstraction

Questions

  1. (Tom) Can any thinking take place completely independent of any certainty (explicitly acknowledged or inexplicit) whatsoever? Or can we introduce alternative terms to 'certainty' and 'confidence' to describe how individuals process their convictions, consent, and agreement? If 'certainty' and 'confidence' connote justificationism, can a fallibilist dismiss these terms entirely?

  2. (Tom) Can fallibilism, anti-authoritarianism, anti-justificationism, and critical rationalism overall operate effectively in the highly competitive space of sports, especially professional sports?

  3. (Andrew) If our best theory of how to make rapid progress comes from Popper's epistemology, should making it more widely known/understood be considered a moral imperative? If not, why? If so, thoughts?

  4. (Andrew) This one has been hanging about in my notes for a couple of years so I'm not sure it's a great question any more, but something zingy about the interplay between reality, abstractions and their effects on each other has pushed me to add it here: Is emergence the result of the interplay between physical reality and the reality of abstractions?

Socials

  • Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
  • Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
  • Help us pay for diapers and get exclusive bonus content by becoming a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help with Diarrhea removal here).
  • Click dem like buttons on youtube over hur.

Who is more annoying in the mornings? Tell us at incrementspodcast@gmail.com

Support Increments

]]>