app01 Sat, 18 Jul 2026 01:59:48 +0000 Fireside (https://fireside.fm) Increments - Episodes Tagged with “Bayes” https://www.incrementspodcast.com/tags/bayes Fri, 17 Jul 2026 14:00:00 -0700 Vaden Masrani, a senior research scientist in machine learning, and Ben Chugg, a PhD student in statistics, get into trouble arguing about everything except machine learning and statistics. Coherence is somewhere on the horizon. Bribes, suggestions, love-mail and hate-mail all welcome at incrementspodcast@gmail.com. en-us episodic Science, Philosophy, Epistemology, Mayhem Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani Vaden Masrani, a senior research scientist in machine learning, and Ben Chugg, a PhD student in statistics, get into trouble arguing about everything except machine learning and statistics. Coherence is somewhere on the horizon. Bribes, suggestions, love-mail and hate-mail all welcome at incrementspodcast@gmail.com. no Philosophy,Science,Ethics,Progress,Knowledge,Computer Science,Conversation,Error-Correction Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani incrementspodcast@gmail.com #105 - The World of Bayesian Statistics (w/ Alex Andorra) https://www.incrementspodcast.com/105 cbb4acb6-ab8c-486c-9cc0-239de0cda4aa Fri, 17 Jul 2026 14:00:00 -0700 Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani full Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani The boys switch teams and act as the great defenders of Bayesianism. 1:18:44 no <p>We've spent a long time bashing Bayesian epistemology on the podcast. Unfortunately, this is sometimes taken to mean that we bash all things Bayesian. But our God-fearing listeners will be pleased to learn that we do not bash all things that the Reverend Thomas Bayes stood for. Bayesian statistics, when appropriately separated from epistemology, has many things to teach us. And instead of taking our word for it, we're bringing on an expert in this field: Alex Andorra, a research scientist at Meta and host of the Learning Bayesian Statistics podcast. The Gods Smile. </p> <p>Check out <a href="https://alexandorra.github.io/" rel="nofollow noopener">Alex's website</a> and the <a href="https://learnbayesstats.com/" rel="nofollow noopener">Learning Bayesian statistics podcast</a>. </p> We discuss <ul> <li>538 and election forecasting </li> <li>Sports analytics and why Messi is objectively the best </li> <li>What is Bayesian statistics? </li> <li>What is the difference between Bayesian and frequentist statistics? </li> <li>What is the allure of Bayesian statistics? </li> <li>Are priors best thought of as beliefs? </li> <li>How do critical rationalists make decisions? </li> </ul> References <ul> <li>Learning Bayesian Statistics: <a href="https://learnbayesstats.com/" rel="nofollow noopener">https://learnbayesstats.com/</a> </li> <li>Silver Bulletin: <a href="https://www.natesilver.net/" rel="nofollow noopener">https://www.natesilver.net/</a></li> <li>Vaden's blog post on decision making: <a href="https://vmasrani.github.io/blog/2020/vaden_second_response/#what-other-options-to-decision-theory-are-there" rel="nofollow noopener">https://vmasrani.github.io/blog/2020/vaden_second_response/#what-other-options-to-decision-theory-are-there</a> # Socials</li> <li>Follow us on Twitter at @alex_andorra, @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani</li> <li>Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link</li> <li>Become a patreon subscriber&nbsp;<a href="https://www.patreon.com/Increments" rel="nofollow noopener">here</a>. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations&nbsp;<a href="https://ko-fi.com/increments" rel="nofollow noopener">here</a>.</li> <li>Click dem like buttons on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_4wZzQyoW4s4ZuE4FY9DQQ" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube</a></li> </ul> <p>Send us an email because you have - no, because you <em>want</em> to - over at <a href="mailto:incrementspodcast@gmail.com" rel="nofollow noopener">incrementspodcast@gmail.com</a>.</p> <p>Special Guest: Alex Andorra.</p> statistics, bayes, belief, probabiliity We've spent a long time bashing Bayesian epistemology on the podcast. Unfortunately, this is sometimes taken to mean that we bash all things Bayesian. But our God-fearing listeners will be pleased to learn that we do not bash all things that the Reverend Thomas Bayes stood for. Bayesian statistics, when appropriately separated from epistemology, has many things to teach us. And instead of taking our word for it, we're bringing on an expert in this field: Alex Andorra, a research scientist at Meta and host of the Learning Bayesian Statistics podcast. The Gods Smile.

Check out Alex's website and the Learning Bayesian statistics podcast.

We discuss
  • 538 and election forecasting
  • Sports analytics and why Messi is objectively the best
  • What is Bayesian statistics?
  • What is the difference between Bayesian and frequentist statistics?
  • What is the allure of Bayesian statistics?
  • Are priors best thought of as beliefs?
  • How do critical rationalists make decisions?
References

Send us an email because you have - no, because you want to - over at incrementspodcast@gmail.com.

Special Guest: Alex Andorra.

Support Increments

]]> We've spent a long time bashing Bayesian epistemology on the podcast. Unfortunately, this is sometimes taken to mean that we bash all things Bayesian. But our God-fearing listeners will be pleased to learn that we do not bash all things that the Reverend Thomas Bayes stood for. Bayesian statistics, when appropriately separated from epistemology, has many things to teach us. And instead of taking our word for it, we're bringing on an expert in this field: Alex Andorra, a research scientist at Meta and host of the Learning Bayesian Statistics podcast. The Gods Smile.

Check out Alex's website and the Learning Bayesian statistics podcast.

We discuss
  • 538 and election forecasting
  • Sports analytics and why Messi is objectively the best
  • What is Bayesian statistics?
  • What is the difference between Bayesian and frequentist statistics?
  • What is the allure of Bayesian statistics?
  • Are priors best thought of as beliefs?
  • How do critical rationalists make decisions?
References

Send us an email because you have - no, because you want to - over at incrementspodcast@gmail.com.

Special Guest: Alex Andorra.

Support Increments

]]> #76 (Bonus) - Is P(doom) meaningful? Debating epistemology (w/ Liron Shapira) https://www.incrementspodcast.com/76 c2b5df9d-ecb4-43d0-9e80-a713495335d8 Fri, 08 Nov 2024 14:30:00 -0800 Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani full Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani We were invited onto Liron Shapira's "Doom debates" to discuss Bayesian versus Popperian epistemology, AI doom, and superintelligence. Unsurprisingly, we got about one third of the way through the first subject ... 2:50:58 no <p>Liron Shapira, host of [Doom Debates], invited us on to discuss Popperian versus Bayesian epistemology and whether we're worried about AI doom. As one might expect knowing us, we only got about halfway through the first subject, so get yourselves ready (presumably with many drinks) for part II in a few weeks! The era of Ben and Vaden's rowdy youtube debates has begun. Vaden is jubilant, Ben is uncomfortable, and the world has never been more annoyed by Popperians. </p> <p>Follow Liron on twitter (@liron) and check out the Doom Debates <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@DoomDebates" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube channel</a> and <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/doom-debates/id1751366208" rel="nofollow noopener">podcast</a>. </p> We discuss <ul> <li>Whether we're concerned about AI doom </li> <li>Bayesian reasoning versus Popperian reasoning </li> <li>Whether it makes sense to put numbers on all your beliefs </li> <li>Solomonoff induction </li> <li>Objective vs subjective Bayesianism </li> <li>Prediction markets and superforecasting </li> </ul> References <ul> <li>Vaden's blog post on Cox's Theorem and Yudkowsky's claims of "Laws of Rationality": <a href="https://vmasrani.github.io/blog/2021/the_credence_assumption/" rel="nofollow noopener">https://vmasrani.github.io/blog/2021/the_credence_assumption/</a></li> <li>Disproof of probabilistic induction (including Solomonov Induction): <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.00749" rel="nofollow noopener">https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.00749</a> </li> <li>EA Post Vaden Mentioned regarding predictions being uncalibrated more than 1yr out: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/hqkyaHLQhzuREcXSX/data-on-forecasting-accuracy-across-different-time-horizons#Calibrations" rel="nofollow noopener">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/hqkyaHLQhzuREcXSX/data-on-forecasting-accuracy-across-different-time-horizons#Calibrations</a></li> <li>Article by Gavin Leech and Misha Yagudin on the reliability of forecasters: <a href="https://ifp.org/can-policymakers-trust-forecasters/" rel="nofollow noopener">https://ifp.org/can-policymakers-trust-forecasters/</a></li> <li>Superforecaster p(doom) is ~1%: <a href="https://80000hours.org/2024/09/why-experts-and-forecasters-disagree-about-ai-risk/#:%7E:text=Domain%20experts%20in%20AI%20estimated,by%202100%20(around%2090%25)" rel="nofollow noopener">https://80000hours.org/2024/09/why-experts-and-forecasters-disagree-about-ai-risk/#:~:text=Domain%20experts%20in%20AI%20estimated,by%202100%20(around%2090%25)</a>.</li> <li>The existential risk persuasion tournament <a href="https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-extinction-tournament" rel="nofollow noopener">https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-extinction-tournament</a></li> <li>Some more info in Ben's article on superforecasting: <a href="https://benchugg.com/writing/superforecasting/" rel="nofollow noopener">https://benchugg.com/writing/superforecasting/</a></li> <li>Slides on Content vs Probability: <a href="https://vmasrani.github.io/assets/pdf/popper_good.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener">https://vmasrani.github.io/assets/pdf/popper_good.pdf</a></li> </ul> Socials <ul> <li>Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani, @liron</li> <li>Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link</li> <li>Trust in the reverend Bayes and get exclusive bonus content by becoming a patreon subscriber <a href="https://www.patreon.com/Increments" rel="nofollow noopener">here</a>. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations <a href="https://ko-fi.com/increments" rel="nofollow noopener">here</a>.</li> <li>Click dem like buttons on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_4wZzQyoW4s4ZuE4FY9DQQ" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube</a></li> </ul> <p>What's your credence that the second debate is as fun as the first? Tell us at <a href="mailto:incrementspodcast@gmail.com" rel="nofollow noopener">incrementspodcast@gmail.com</a> <br> Special Guest: Liron Shapira.</p> AI, belief, Popper, Bayes, epistemology, prediction, induction Liron Shapira, host of [Doom Debates], invited us on to discuss Popperian versus Bayesian epistemology and whether we're worried about AI doom. As one might expect knowing us, we only got about halfway through the first subject, so get yourselves ready (presumably with many drinks) for part II in a few weeks! The era of Ben and Vaden's rowdy youtube debates has begun. Vaden is jubilant, Ben is uncomfortable, and the world has never been more annoyed by Popperians.

Follow Liron on twitter (@liron) and check out the Doom Debates youtube channel and podcast.

We discuss
  • Whether we're concerned about AI doom
  • Bayesian reasoning versus Popperian reasoning
  • Whether it makes sense to put numbers on all your beliefs
  • Solomonoff induction
  • Objective vs subjective Bayesianism
  • Prediction markets and superforecasting
References Socials
  • Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani, @liron
  • Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
  • Trust in the reverend Bayes and get exclusive bonus content by becoming a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
  • Click dem like buttons on youtube

What's your credence that the second debate is as fun as the first? Tell us at incrementspodcast@gmail.com

Special Guest: Liron Shapira.

Support Increments

]]> Liron Shapira, host of [Doom Debates], invited us on to discuss Popperian versus Bayesian epistemology and whether we're worried about AI doom. As one might expect knowing us, we only got about halfway through the first subject, so get yourselves ready (presumably with many drinks) for part II in a few weeks! The era of Ben and Vaden's rowdy youtube debates has begun. Vaden is jubilant, Ben is uncomfortable, and the world has never been more annoyed by Popperians.

Follow Liron on twitter (@liron) and check out the Doom Debates youtube channel and podcast.

We discuss
  • Whether we're concerned about AI doom
  • Bayesian reasoning versus Popperian reasoning
  • Whether it makes sense to put numbers on all your beliefs
  • Solomonoff induction
  • Objective vs subjective Bayesianism
  • Prediction markets and superforecasting
References Socials
  • Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani, @liron
  • Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
  • Trust in the reverend Bayes and get exclusive bonus content by becoming a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
  • Click dem like buttons on youtube

What's your credence that the second debate is as fun as the first? Tell us at incrementspodcast@gmail.com

Special Guest: Liron Shapira.

Support Increments

]]>