web02.fireside.fm Wed, 29 Apr 2026 10:35:57 -0500 Fireside (https://fireside.fm) Increments - Episodes Tagged with “Artificial Intelligence” https://www.incrementspodcast.com/tags/artificial%20intelligence Thu, 04 Sep 2025 09:15:00 -0700 Vaden Masrani, a senior research scientist in machine learning, and Ben Chugg, a PhD student in statistics, get into trouble arguing about everything except machine learning and statistics. Coherence is somewhere on the horizon. Bribes, suggestions, love-mail and hate-mail all welcome at incrementspodcast@gmail.com. en-us episodic Science, Philosophy, Epistemology, Mayhem Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani Vaden Masrani, a senior research scientist in machine learning, and Ben Chugg, a PhD student in statistics, get into trouble arguing about everything except machine learning and statistics. Coherence is somewhere on the horizon. Bribes, suggestions, love-mail and hate-mail all welcome at incrementspodcast@gmail.com. no Philosophy,Science,Ethics,Progress,Knowledge,Computer Science,Conversation,Error-Correction Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani incrementspodcast@gmail.com #91 - The Uses and Abuses of Statistics (w/ Ben Recht) https://www.incrementspodcast.com/91 1ca9679b-5aa1-4a8b-b5bb-9327b307430b Thu, 04 Sep 2025 09:15:00 -0700 Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani full Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani What is statistics good for? Has it ever discovered anything? Where does the word "robot" come from? Ben Recht joins us to untangle these mysteries. 1:16:59 no Professor of electrical engineering and computer science Ben Recht joins us to defend Bayesianism, AI doom, and assure us that the statisticians have everything under control. Just kidding. Recht might be even more suspicious of these things than we are. What has statistics ever done for us, really? When was the last time YOU ran a clinical trial after all, huh? HUH? After Ben Chugg defends his life decision to do a PhD in statistics, we talk AI, cults, philosophy, Paul Meehl, and discuss Ben Recht's forthcoming book, The Irrational Decision (https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691272443/the-irrational-decision). Check out Ben's blog (https://www.argmin.net/), website (https://people.eecs.berkeley.edu/~brecht/), and his story about machine learning (https://mlstory.org/). We discuss Ben Recht's theory of blogging Why is Berkeley the epicenter of AI doom? Where the word "robot" came from Is Bayesian reasoning responsible for AI doom? Paul Meehl and his contributions to science Ben Recht's bureaucratic theory of statistics What on earth is null hypothesis testing? What is the point of statistics? "Sweet spots" and "small worlds" Does science proceed by Popperian means? Can Popper get around the Duhem-Quine problem? Errata The z-score for the Pfizer trial was 20, not 12! References Argmin (https://www.argmin.net/), Ben Recht's blog David Freedman, UC Berkeley (https://statistics.berkeley.edu/about/biographies/david-freedman) Paul Meehl's online course (https://www.youtube.com/@michaelmcgovern8633/featured) Theoretical Risks and Tabular Asterisks: Sir Karl, Sir Ronald, and the Slow Progress of Soft Psychology (https://errorstatistics.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/meehl-1978.pdf), Paul Meehl's 1978 paper. Clinical versus statistical prediction: A theoretical analysis and a review of the evidence (https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2006-21565-000), by Meehl On the near impossibility of estimating the returns to advertising (https://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/veranstaltungen/ICT2013/Papers/ICT2013_Rao.pdf) A Bureaucratic Theory of Statistics (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2501.03457) by Recht The new riddle of induction (https://fitelson.org/confirmation/goodman_1955.pdf) by Goodman Announcing the Irrational Decision (https://www.argmin.net/p/announcing-the-irrational-decision) Patterns, Predictions, and Actions (https://mlstory.org/), textbook by Ben Recht and Moritz Hardt Socials Follow us on Twitter at @BeenWrekt, @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link Become a patreon subscriber here (https://www.patreon.com/Increments). Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here (https://ko-fi.com/increments). Click dem like buttons on youtube (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_4wZzQyoW4s4ZuE4FY9DQQ) What's Berkeley's next cult? Send your guess over to incrementspodcast@gmail.com Special Guest: Ben Recht. statistics, rationality, AGI, artificial intelligence Professor of electrical engineering and computer science Ben Recht joins us to defend Bayesianism, AI doom, and assure us that the statisticians have everything under control.

Just kidding. Recht might be even more suspicious of these things than we are. What has statistics ever done for us, really? When was the last time YOU ran a clinical trial after all, huh? HUH? After Ben Chugg defends his life decision to do a PhD in statistics, we talk AI, cults, philosophy, Paul Meehl, and discuss Ben Recht's forthcoming book, The Irrational Decision.

Check out Ben's blog, website, and his story about machine learning.

We discuss

  • Ben Recht's theory of blogging
  • Why is Berkeley the epicenter of AI doom?
  • Where the word "robot" came from
  • Is Bayesian reasoning responsible for AI doom?
  • Paul Meehl and his contributions to science
  • Ben Recht's bureaucratic theory of statistics
  • What on earth is null hypothesis testing?
  • What is the point of statistics?
  • "Sweet spots" and "small worlds"
  • Does science proceed by Popperian means?
  • Can Popper get around the Duhem-Quine problem?

Errata

The z-score for the Pfizer trial was 20, not 12!

References

Socials

  • Follow us on Twitter at @BeenWrekt, @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
  • Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
  • Become a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
  • Click dem like buttons on youtube

What's Berkeley's next cult? Send your guess over to incrementspodcast@gmail.com

Special Guest: Ben Recht.

Support Increments

]]> Professor of electrical engineering and computer science Ben Recht joins us to defend Bayesianism, AI doom, and assure us that the statisticians have everything under control.

Just kidding. Recht might be even more suspicious of these things than we are. What has statistics ever done for us, really? When was the last time YOU ran a clinical trial after all, huh? HUH? After Ben Chugg defends his life decision to do a PhD in statistics, we talk AI, cults, philosophy, Paul Meehl, and discuss Ben Recht's forthcoming book, The Irrational Decision.

Check out Ben's blog, website, and his story about machine learning.

We discuss

  • Ben Recht's theory of blogging
  • Why is Berkeley the epicenter of AI doom?
  • Where the word "robot" came from
  • Is Bayesian reasoning responsible for AI doom?
  • Paul Meehl and his contributions to science
  • Ben Recht's bureaucratic theory of statistics
  • What on earth is null hypothesis testing?
  • What is the point of statistics?
  • "Sweet spots" and "small worlds"
  • Does science proceed by Popperian means?
  • Can Popper get around the Duhem-Quine problem?

Errata

The z-score for the Pfizer trial was 20, not 12!

References

Socials

  • Follow us on Twitter at @BeenWrekt, @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
  • Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
  • Become a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
  • Click dem like buttons on youtube

What's Berkeley's next cult? Send your guess over to incrementspodcast@gmail.com

Special Guest: Ben Recht.

Support Increments

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