web01.fireside.fm Sat, 13 Jun 2026 16:12:35 -0500 Fireside (https://fireside.fm) Increments - Episodes Tagged with “Artificial Intelligence” https://www.incrementspodcast.com/tags/artificial%20intelligence Fri, 29 May 2026 12:00:00 -0700 Vaden Masrani, a senior research scientist in machine learning, and Ben Chugg, a PhD student in statistics, get into trouble arguing about everything except machine learning and statistics. Coherence is somewhere on the horizon. Bribes, suggestions, love-mail and hate-mail all welcome at incrementspodcast@gmail.com. en-us episodic Science, Philosophy, Epistemology, Mayhem Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani Vaden Masrani, a senior research scientist in machine learning, and Ben Chugg, a PhD student in statistics, get into trouble arguing about everything except machine learning and statistics. Coherence is somewhere on the horizon. Bribes, suggestions, love-mail and hate-mail all welcome at incrementspodcast@gmail.com. no Philosophy,Science,Ethics,Progress,Knowledge,Computer Science,Conversation,Error-Correction Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani incrementspodcast@gmail.com #103 - AI, Evolution, and The God Test (w/ Robert Wright) https://www.incrementspodcast.com/103 ce72a94a-7c48-41f5-ba31-4f7a4e5ae196 Fri, 29 May 2026 12:00:00 -0700 Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani full Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani Robert Wright joins us to talk about his upcoming book on artificial intelligence. 1:47:27 no <p>Did you ever see the video of two regular people trying to fight Eddie Hall, the strongest man on earth? Ben and Vaden bring that same energy to this conversation, where they gang up on Robert Wright on the subject of his forthcoming book <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/God-Test-Artificial-Intelligence-Reckoning/dp/1668061651" rel="nofollow noopener">The God Test: Artificial Intelligence and Our Coming Cosmic Reckoning</a>. Bob is a sport about it (well, there was no choice really: we have an advanced copy of his book that we're holding hostage) and there are only one or two black eyes by the end. </p> <p>Subscribe to Robert Wright's podcasting empire NonZero on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/c/Nonzero" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube</a> and <a href="https://www.nonzero.org/podcast" rel="nofollow noopener">substack</a>. And go buy one of his many books. </p> We discuss <ul> <li>Whether Bob was the OG podcaster </li> <li>Is there a directionality to evolution? </li> <li>Where Bob is on the AI fear and awe spectrum </li> <li>Whether LLMs have decoded the meaning in language </li> <li>Is AI best viewed as a tool or as superintelligence? </li> <li>AI-as-slingshot analogy </li> </ul> References <ul> <li><a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/God-Test-Artificial-Intelligence-Reckoning/dp/1668061651" rel="nofollow noopener">The God Test by Robert Wright</a></li> <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonzero:_The_Logic_of_Human_Destiny" rel="nofollow noopener">Nonzero by Robert Wright</a></li> <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watchmaker_analogy" rel="nofollow noopener">William Paley and his pocket watch</a></li> <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blind_Watchmaker" rel="nofollow noopener">The Blind Watchmaker by Richard Dawkins</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.incrementspodcast.com/94" rel="nofollow noopener">Our conversation with Scott Aaronson</a></li> </ul> Socials <ul> <li>Follow us on Twitter at @RobertWrighter, @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani</li> <li>Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link</li> <li>Become a patreon subscriber&nbsp;<a href="https://www.patreon.com/Increments" rel="nofollow noopener">here</a>. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations&nbsp;<a href="https://ko-fi.com/increments" rel="nofollow noopener">here</a>.</li> <li>Click dem like buttons on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_4wZzQyoW4s4ZuE4FY9DQQ" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube</a></li> </ul> <p>What's the directionality of this podcast? Tell us at <a href="mailto:incrementspodcast@gmail.com" rel="nofollow noopener">incrementspodcast@gmail.com</a>.</p> <p>Special Guest: Robert Wright.</p> artificial intelligence, LLMs, AI-doom, machine learning, evolution Did you ever see the video of two regular people trying to fight Eddie Hall, the strongest man on earth? Ben and Vaden bring that same energy to this conversation, where they gang up on Robert Wright on the subject of his forthcoming book The God Test: Artificial Intelligence and Our Coming Cosmic Reckoning. Bob is a sport about it (well, there was no choice really: we have an advanced copy of his book that we're holding hostage) and there are only one or two black eyes by the end.

Subscribe to Robert Wright's podcasting empire NonZero on youtube and substack. And go buy one of his many books.

We discuss
  • Whether Bob was the OG podcaster
  • Is there a directionality to evolution?
  • Where Bob is on the AI fear and awe spectrum
  • Whether LLMs have decoded the meaning in language
  • Is AI best viewed as a tool or as superintelligence?
  • AI-as-slingshot analogy
References Socials
  • Follow us on Twitter at @RobertWrighter, @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
  • Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
  • Become a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
  • Click dem like buttons on youtube

What's the directionality of this podcast? Tell us at incrementspodcast@gmail.com.

Special Guest: Robert Wright.

Support Increments

]]> Did you ever see the video of two regular people trying to fight Eddie Hall, the strongest man on earth? Ben and Vaden bring that same energy to this conversation, where they gang up on Robert Wright on the subject of his forthcoming book The God Test: Artificial Intelligence and Our Coming Cosmic Reckoning. Bob is a sport about it (well, there was no choice really: we have an advanced copy of his book that we're holding hostage) and there are only one or two black eyes by the end.

Subscribe to Robert Wright's podcasting empire NonZero on youtube and substack. And go buy one of his many books.

We discuss
  • Whether Bob was the OG podcaster
  • Is there a directionality to evolution?
  • Where Bob is on the AI fear and awe spectrum
  • Whether LLMs have decoded the meaning in language
  • Is AI best viewed as a tool or as superintelligence?
  • AI-as-slingshot analogy
References Socials
  • Follow us on Twitter at @RobertWrighter, @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
  • Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
  • Become a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
  • Click dem like buttons on youtube

What's the directionality of this podcast? Tell us at incrementspodcast@gmail.com.

Special Guest: Robert Wright.

Support Increments

]]> #91 - The Uses and Abuses of Statistics (w/ Ben Recht) https://www.incrementspodcast.com/91 1ca9679b-5aa1-4a8b-b5bb-9327b307430b Thu, 04 Sep 2025 09:15:00 -0700 Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani full Ben Chugg and Vaden Masrani What is statistics good for? Has it ever discovered anything? Where does the word "robot" come from? Ben Recht joins us to untangle these mysteries. 1:16:59 no <p>Professor of electrical engineering and computer science Ben Recht joins us to defend Bayesianism, AI doom, and assure us that the statisticians have everything under control. </p> <p>Just kidding. Recht might be even more suspicious of these things than we are. What has statistics ever done for us, really? When was the last time YOU ran a clinical trial after all, huh? HUH? After Ben Chugg defends his life decision to do a PhD in statistics, we talk AI, cults, philosophy, Paul Meehl, and discuss Ben Recht's forthcoming book, <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691272443/the-irrational-decision" rel="nofollow noopener">The Irrational Decision</a>. </p> <p>Check out Ben's <a href="https://www.argmin.net/" rel="nofollow noopener">blog</a>, <a href="https://people.eecs.berkeley.edu/%7Ebrecht/" rel="nofollow noopener">website</a>, and his <a href="https://mlstory.org/" rel="nofollow noopener">story about machine learning</a>. </p> We discuss <ul> <li>Ben Recht's theory of blogging </li> <li>Why is Berkeley the epicenter of AI doom?<br></li> <li>Where the word "robot" came from </li> <li>Is Bayesian reasoning responsible for AI doom? </li> <li>Paul Meehl and his contributions to science </li> <li>Ben Recht's bureaucratic theory of statistics</li> <li>What on earth is null hypothesis testing? </li> <li>What is the point of statistics?</li> <li>"Sweet spots" and "small worlds"</li> <li>Does science proceed by Popperian means? </li> <li>Can Popper get around the Duhem-Quine problem?<br></li> </ul> Errata <p>The z-score for the Pfizer trial was 20, not 12! </p> References <ul> <li><a href="https://www.argmin.net/" rel="nofollow noopener">Argmin</a>, Ben Recht's blog</li> <li><a href="https://statistics.berkeley.edu/about/biographies/david-freedman" rel="nofollow noopener">David Freedman, UC Berkeley</a> </li> <li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/@michaelmcgovern8633/featured" rel="nofollow noopener">Paul Meehl's online course</a> </li> <li><a href="https://errorstatistics.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/meehl-1978.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener">Theoretical Risks and Tabular Asterisks: Sir Karl, Sir Ronald, and the Slow Progress of Soft Psychology</a>, Paul Meehl's 1978 paper. </li> <li><a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2006-21565-000" rel="nofollow noopener">Clinical versus statistical prediction: A theoretical analysis and a review of the evidence</a>, by Meehl </li> <li><a href="https://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/veranstaltungen/ICT2013/Papers/ICT2013_Rao.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener">On the near impossibility of estimating the returns to advertising</a></li> <li><a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2501.03457" rel="nofollow noopener">A Bureaucratic Theory of Statistics</a> by Recht </li> <li><a href="https://fitelson.org/confirmation/goodman_1955.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener">The new riddle of induction</a> by Goodman </li> <li><a href="https://www.argmin.net/p/announcing-the-irrational-decision" rel="nofollow noopener">Announcing the Irrational Decision</a> </li> <li><a href="https://mlstory.org/" rel="nofollow noopener">Patterns, Predictions, and Actions</a>, textbook by Ben Recht and Moritz Hardt</li> </ul> Socials <ul> <li>Follow us on Twitter at @BeenWrekt, @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani</li> <li>Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link</li> <li>Become a patreon subscriber&nbsp;<a href="https://www.patreon.com/Increments" rel="nofollow noopener">here</a>. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations&nbsp;<a href="https://ko-fi.com/increments" rel="nofollow noopener">here</a>.</li> <li>Click dem like buttons on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_4wZzQyoW4s4ZuE4FY9DQQ" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube</a></li> </ul> <p>What's Berkeley's next cult? Send your guess over to <a href="mailto:incrementspodcast@gmail.com" rel="nofollow noopener">incrementspodcast@gmail.com</a><br> Special Guest: Ben Recht.</p> statistics, rationality, AGI, artificial intelligence Professor of electrical engineering and computer science Ben Recht joins us to defend Bayesianism, AI doom, and assure us that the statisticians have everything under control.

Just kidding. Recht might be even more suspicious of these things than we are. What has statistics ever done for us, really? When was the last time YOU ran a clinical trial after all, huh? HUH? After Ben Chugg defends his life decision to do a PhD in statistics, we talk AI, cults, philosophy, Paul Meehl, and discuss Ben Recht's forthcoming book, The Irrational Decision.

Check out Ben's blog, website, and his story about machine learning.

We discuss
  • Ben Recht's theory of blogging
  • Why is Berkeley the epicenter of AI doom?
  • Where the word "robot" came from
  • Is Bayesian reasoning responsible for AI doom?
  • Paul Meehl and his contributions to science
  • Ben Recht's bureaucratic theory of statistics
  • What on earth is null hypothesis testing?
  • What is the point of statistics?
  • "Sweet spots" and "small worlds"
  • Does science proceed by Popperian means?
  • Can Popper get around the Duhem-Quine problem?
Errata

The z-score for the Pfizer trial was 20, not 12!

References Socials
  • Follow us on Twitter at @BeenWrekt, @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
  • Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
  • Become a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
  • Click dem like buttons on youtube

What's Berkeley's next cult? Send your guess over to incrementspodcast@gmail.com

Special Guest: Ben Recht.

Support Increments

]]> Professor of electrical engineering and computer science Ben Recht joins us to defend Bayesianism, AI doom, and assure us that the statisticians have everything under control.

Just kidding. Recht might be even more suspicious of these things than we are. What has statistics ever done for us, really? When was the last time YOU ran a clinical trial after all, huh? HUH? After Ben Chugg defends his life decision to do a PhD in statistics, we talk AI, cults, philosophy, Paul Meehl, and discuss Ben Recht's forthcoming book, The Irrational Decision.

Check out Ben's blog, website, and his story about machine learning.

We discuss
  • Ben Recht's theory of blogging
  • Why is Berkeley the epicenter of AI doom?
  • Where the word "robot" came from
  • Is Bayesian reasoning responsible for AI doom?
  • Paul Meehl and his contributions to science
  • Ben Recht's bureaucratic theory of statistics
  • What on earth is null hypothesis testing?
  • What is the point of statistics?
  • "Sweet spots" and "small worlds"
  • Does science proceed by Popperian means?
  • Can Popper get around the Duhem-Quine problem?
Errata

The z-score for the Pfizer trial was 20, not 12!

References Socials
  • Follow us on Twitter at @BeenWrekt, @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
  • Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
  • Become a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
  • Click dem like buttons on youtube

What's Berkeley's next cult? Send your guess over to incrementspodcast@gmail.com

Special Guest: Ben Recht.

Support Increments

]]>